Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast.

Harris has been a vocal advocate for abortion rights even before she began her campaign. In March, she became the first vice ...

in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Trump wins 44 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner. We adjust polls for house effects, mode, ...

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, ...

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, ...

Who’s Ahead in National Presidential Polls? Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages.

Who’s Ahead in National Presidential Polls? Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In ...

Who’s Ahead in National Presidential Polls? Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this ...